Advisory · Organisation · Development
Predictive analytics & forecasting
1. Brief service summary
Prepare forecasts tied to business questions, identified data and explicit assumptions. Examine methods and limits without presenting probabilistic estimates as certain or past performance as future reliability guarantees.
2. Your needs
Your organization seeks demand, workload or trend anticipation but projections are difficult to explain. Historical series contain breaks and managers use differing assumptions. You wish to clarify what can be forecast, at what horizon and with which reservations before model-based decisions.
3. Objectives of the engagement
Define target, horizon and intended use. Distinguish usable signals, context effects and information unavailable at prediction time. Choose evaluation criteria, compare against a simple baseline and prepare reassessment when behaviour or sources change.
4. Indicative scope
Work may cover data scoping, method selection and evaluation protocol design. Temporal splits, leakage risks and atypical situations are explicit. Explanatory factors remain debated; variable inclusion proves neither causality nor legitimate use.
5. Possible delivery arrangements
Business workshops, source review and authorized analysis may be combined under a mandate. Actual trials need agreed scope, criteria and traceability. Results include uncertainty; no operational or individual decision is automatically triggered.
6. Possible deliverables
As agreed: scoping note, evaluation protocol, method comparison and limitations file. Monitoring may specify drift, alerts and recovery conditions. Deliverables are indicative, neither production systems, accuracy guarantees nor authorization for additional data processing.
7. Conditions and limitations
Decision analysis falls under 19.07; AI uses under 19.09. This service anticipates. No accuracy rate, revenue or error absence is guaranteed. Qualifications, confidentiality and rights require checks. Deployment, automation and sensitive decisions need separate scope and explicit human responsibilities.